The IPO listing day tells you more about the next year than the issue does
Most IPO talk ends on listing day. We followed every mainboard IPO that listed from 2020 to September 2025 for a full year after, using the exchanges' own daily closing prices measured against the issue price. 300 issues had a full year of trading.
The clearest pattern: how a stock behaves on its first day says a lot about its first year.
| Listing-day move | IPOs | Median 1-year return | Beat the Nifty 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fell below issue price | 78 | -13.8% | 35% |
| Up 0 to 20% | 94 | +2.6% | 48% |
| Up 20 to 50% | 80 | +37.5% | 68% |
| Up 50% or more | 48 | +71.8% | 85% |
Returns are from the issue price, price only, adjusted for later splits and bonuses. "Beat the Nifty 50" compares each stock with the index over the same days.
Why this matters
Weak listings did not usually recover. Nearly two in three of the IPOs that closed day one below the issue price were still behind the index a year later. Strong listings, the ones many investors assume are "already priced in", did not give their gains back on the whole: a year later the 50%-plus group was still up a median 71.8% from the issue price, and 85% of them had beaten the index.
This is not a trading rule. Averages hide wide ranges, the sample is one market cycle, and an issue that lists 50% up is not something you can buy at the issue price after the fact. But it is a useful check against two common habits: selling every strong listing on day one, and holding a weak listing because "it will come back to the issue price".
Year by year
| Listed in | Mainboard IPOs | Median listing-day gain | Up on day one | Median 1-year return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 54 | +16.4% | 67% | -0.4% |
| 2022 | 38 | +5.2% | 61% | +41.1% |
| 2023 | 55 | +20.8% | 85% | +53.4% |
| 2024 | 89 | +21.0% | 79% | +16.5% |
| 2025 | 102 | +5.1% | 67% | -12.5% (55 with a full year) |
Listing gains and later returns move independently from year to year: 2022 had small listing pops but strong one-year returns, while 2021 had big pops and a flat year.
SME IPOs are a different game
SME issues listed with far larger first-day jumps (a median of +41.3% in 2024, with 88% up on day one) and their one-year averages are pulled up by a few extreme winners. The medians are much lower than the averages, and in 2024 only 43% of SME issues still trade above their issue price today. The IPO study page has the full SME tables.
Every listed IPO, with its listing gain and return since, is on the IPO page, and each company page shows its IPO price and return since listing. How we calculate the numbers: methodology.
Numbers as of 2 October 2026. Data, not advice; see the disclaimer.