MarketFriction

Results surprise and what came after

India has no free analyst consensus, so we make our own estimate of every company's quarterly sales and profit from what it had reported before (median error 11.1% for sales, 40.1% for profit). A beat or miss is measured against how noisy that company usually is. These tables show how prices moved against the Nifty 50 after each kind of surprise, from the first trading day after the results board meeting. Averages, before costs, overlapping events; quarters since 2024 only. Not advice.

Excess return after results

GroupEvents1 day avg1 day up5 days avg5 days up20 days avg20 days up60 days avg60 days up
Profit: big beat1426+0.24%47%+0.28%45%+1.67%48%+2.50%47%
Profit: beat2634+0.07%45%-0.17%41%+0.95%46%+2.60%48%
Profit: in line4660-0.19%43%-0.61%38%-0.64%40%-0.07%42%
Profit: miss2413-0.21%42%-0.58%40%-0.54%41%-0.25%42%
Profit: big miss1209-0.35%41%-0.69%41%-0.52%42%-0.13%42%
Both beat2286+0.24%46%+0.24%45%+1.67%49%+3.82%51%
Both miss1951-0.41%41%-0.65%41%-0.83%40%-1.12%41%
Sales: big beat1665+0.13%45%+0.16%44%+1.42%46%+3.09%49%
Sales: beat3032-0.00%43%-0.26%41%+0.39%45%+2.05%47%
Sales: in line3383-0.10%44%-0.62%38%-0.21%40%+0.69%43%
Sales: miss2674-0.21%43%-0.47%41%-0.70%40%-0.43%42%
Sales: big miss1512-0.39%42%-0.80%39%-0.74%40%-1.79%38%
All scored12342-0.11%43%-0.42%40%-0.00%42%+0.74%44%
Data: NSE and BSE daily reports, company filings. Numbers only, not investment advice, not a SEBI-registered research service.AboutMethodologyFAQResearchContactTermsPrivacyDisclaimerUpdated 2026-10-03